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Archive for June, 2011

Roulette Betting Strategy Analysis

Posted by jaystile on June 13, 2011

My friend was speaking with me about a positive progression betting strategy that he had used successfully. Me being the analytical person that I am began obsessing about it. Why did I obsess about it? It was because I could not see how it would fail. It’s evident now but not before I modeled the strategy. Enjoy my analysis on some common strategies.

The Model
I wrote my own Roulette simulator in java. Each ‘player’ uses a specific strategy. Each player started with $300. The minimum bet on the table is $5. A maximum bet was not enforced. 100 Sessions of 100 spins were completed for the players.

The Positive Progression
There are streaks in gambling. One wishes to bet the minimum when on a losing streak and bet the maximum on a winning streak. The issue with this strategy is that those positive streaks don’t seem to come frequent enough. Each time the player wins they add one betting increment ($5) to their original bet. Once a streak of three or better comes along is when the player starts to profit.

Basic Positive Progression (-20.5%)
The first ‘flavor’ is what I’m calling the ‘Basic Positive Progression’. The player bet on black and each time they won they added one increment. When they lost they started over at the first increment.

Hedged Positive Progression (-40.2%)
If it works for betting black, it’s got to work just as well for betting black and red at the same time! The theory behind this strategy is that if the spins go back and forth between red and black the player can’wait it out’ for a streak. The same theory applies as before but executing the strategy on both red and black.

First Dozen – Positive Progression (-19.5%)
You know what is better than a streak paying you 1:1? A streak paying 2:1. This is the same Positive Progression scenario as before, but using the ‘First Dozen’ bet.

Martingale (-45.1%)
The Martingale strategy is fairly straight forward. This strategy involves the player doubling their bet until they win. Then they go back to the first increment. It is common to lose all your cash or to reach the table limit causing a giant loss.

Fibonacci (-19.7%)
This strategy involves using the Fibonacci sequence to manage the player’s bets. Each time the player wins they go back two steps to the left along the sequence. Every time they lose they move one forward to the right in the sequence. The sequence looks like this 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8 …

First Dozen Fibonacci (-26.1%)
Same as above but using the ‘First Dozen’ bet instead of ‘Black’.

Fibonacci Positive Progression (-11.2%)
As I was experimenting played with a positive progression strategy using the Fibonacci sequence. That means every time you win you increase the number of bet increments to the appropriate number. When you lose you start over at the first number in the sequence. I was pleasantly surprised to see the result had bested all the other strategies.

First Dozen – Fibonacci Positive Progression (-08.9%)
Then I tried with a result that pays 2:1. The numbers gave me a better result, but I am not sure why. More investigation is required.

Summary
If you are going to play Roulette just keep it in mind that you’re going to lose money. Some strategies have you lose it slower than others. You might want to consider using the First Dozen – Fibonacci Positive Progression’.

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